Grown local
What will our supermarkets look like in 2050?
Grown local
What will supermarkets
look like in 2050?
You walk into your local supermarket in 2050. Lettuce is growing upstairs in vertical farms. Tomatoes are harvested metres from the checkout. Almonds and rice are premium products. Artificial intelligence (AI) predicts crop shortages before they happen. And most fresh produce travels only a few kilometres before reaching your plate.
Bond University Associate Dean of Learning & Teaching, Professor Marcus Randall, has spent more than 35 years using computational modelling and optimisation systems to solve complex real-world problems.
Today, that work is helping researchers better understand how Australia’s food systems may evolve over the coming decades.
Why our food systems must change
Marcus and his team have been working with data from the Murrumbidgee irrigation area — one of Australia’s major food bowls — to understand how hotter and drier conditions could affect future food production.
Marcus assures us there will still be plenty of readily available fresh vegetables, including hardy varieties like cabbage, broccoli, cauliflower, eggplant, and tomato. But we may see less water intensive crops in 2050.
“Anything that requires a lot of water, including rice, sugar cane, almonds, those types of things are going to be harder to buy, and more expensive when you do find them,” Marcus says.
Today, that work is helping researchers better understand how Australia’s food systems may evolve over the coming decades.
Why our food systems must change
Marcus and his team have been working with data from the Murrumbidgee irrigation area — one of Australia’s major food bowls — to understand how hotter and drier conditions could affect future food production.
Marcus assures us there will still be plenty of readily available fresh vegetables, including hardy varieties like cabbage, broccoli, cauliflower, eggplant, and tomato.
But we may see less water intensive crops in 2050.
“Anything that requires a lot of water, including rice, sugar cane, almonds, those types of things are going to be harder to buy, and more expensive when you do find them,” Marcus says.
“Crops that are really sensitive to heat stress will suffer more under climate change as well, with supply of potatoes and leafy greens likely affected.”
At the same time, long and complex global supply chains are becoming increasingly vulnerable to disruption from conflict, extreme weather, and rising fuel costs.
“As soon as you lengthen the supply chain, you increase risk,” Marcus says.
“Anything we get from overseas becomes risky; anything you source locally is more secure.”
The foods of the future
By 2050, Australian diets may look quite different. Researchers predict that heat-resistant and low-water-use crops will become increasingly important as traditional growing conditions change.
“C4 crops, like maize and sorghum, which use a specialised photosynthetic pathway that makes them efficient in hot, bright, and dry environments, will be easier for us to grow here,” Marcus says.
Farmers may also rely more heavily on crop rotation and fallowing, allowing land to rest and regenerate between planting cycles.
“Crops that are really sensitive to heat stress will suffer more under climate change as well, with supply of potatoes and leafy greens likely affected.”
At the same time, long and complex global supply chains are becoming increasingly vulnerable to disruption from conflict, extreme weather, and rising fuel costs. “As soon as you lengthen the supply chain, you increase risk,” Marcus says.
“Anything we get from overseas
becomes risky; anything you
source locally is more secure.”
The foods of the future
By 2050, Australian diets may look quite different. Researchers predict that heat-resistant and low-water-use crops will become increasingly important as traditional growing conditions change.
“C4 crops, like maize and sorghum, which use a specialised photosynthetic pathway that makes them efficient in hot, bright, and dry environments, will be easier for us to grow here,” Marcus says.
Farmers may also rely more heavily on crop rotation and fallowing, allowing land to rest and regenerate between planting cycles.
“Sometimes crops like chickpeas and lentils can be grown in between other crops to improve soil health, which will become essential in drier climates,” he says.
Growing food closer to home
“Sometimes crops like chickpeas and lentils can be grown in between other crops to improve soil health, which will become essential in drier climates,” he says.
Growing food closer to home
Marcus believes cities like the Gold Coast are uniquely positioned to produce more of their own food. Unlike cities with one dominant central business district, the Gold Coast’s decentralised urban footprint creates opportunities for smaller-scale local agriculture.
“Being long and stretched out means the Gold Coast has a lot of land under Council control that could be better used to create fresh produce through market gardens or resident allotments,” he says.
“There are also many rooftops currently going to waste. They could be used for food production, as well as increasing green space to be enjoyed.”
With abundant sunshine and growing demand, he believes South East Queensland could become a leader in more localised and resilient food systems.
Could supermarkets become farms?
One of the biggest shifts may happen inside supermarkets themselves. Gold Coast agritech company Stacked Farm already operates fully automated vertical farming facilities that use robotics, AI-driven software, and climate-controlled systems to grow herbs and leafy greens year-round without soil, sunlight, or pesticides.
Marcus says these technologies could become a normal part of future supermarkets. “The current supermarket model has to change,” he says.
“There’s no reason why your local supermarket can’t be expanded vertically to produce crops. They can sell their produce on the lower levels or even invite customers to pick their own.
“If we can produce food as close as possible to where it’s retailing from, you get greater supply security, affordability, and sustainability.”
How Bond researchers are predicting the future
Marcus’s work involves translating complex real-world systems into computational models that can test different future scenarios.
“We can input different data models, put everything together, and come up with some answers — in a couple of minutes or less,” Marcus says.
“We’ve done it with so many different problems, from Radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags, to aircraft landings, and the impact of blockchain on transportation.”
“If we can produce food as close as possible to where it’s retailing from, you get greater supply security, affordability, and sustainability.”
How Bond researchers are predicting the future
Marcus’s work involves translating complex real-world systems into computational models that can test different future scenarios. “We can input different data models, put everything together, and come up with some answers — in a couple of minutes or less,” Marcus says.
“We’ve done it with so many different problems, from Radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags, to aircraft landings, and the impact of blockchain on transportation.”
These models help researchers, governments, and agricultural planners better understand where crops may thrive, how water resources could be allocated, and what infrastructure investments may be needed to support long-term food security.
A smarter food economy
Marcus says Australia needs to rethink how it processes and manufactures food products. “Australia has traditionally been a primary producer, but climate change is going to affect not only crops, but livestock as well,” he says.
“If we don't do more value adding in this country, we're going to see economic contraction over time. We need to think about smart manufacturing; we have better AI capabilities than ever before and a whole range of new technologies.
“There’s no reason why we can’t restart a smarter manufacturing industry and value-add to the goods we produce here so that we become a net exporter rather than an importer.
“But we need the investment and drive from local and state governments to make it happen at the scale required to make sure we’ve got ongoing security by 2050.”
The supermarket of 2050
Marcus believes the future of food is greener, smarter, and more local. But achieving that future will require investment and long-term planning.
“It can sound science fiction-y, but there’s no reason why we can’t do it,” Marcus says.
“It all adds up to better security for us. If there are world shocks — and more of them are going to come — being able to provide more food security through short supply chains, increased local production, and eating seasonally, will give us a safer, exciting future.”
The supermarket of 2050
Marcus believes the future of food is greener, smarter, and more local. But achieving that future will require investment and long-term planning.
“It can sound science fiction-y, but there’s no reason why we can’t do it,” Marcus says.
“It all adds up to better security for us. If there are world shocks — and more of them are going to come — being able to provide more food security through short supply chains, increased local production, and eating seasonally, will give us a safer, exciting future.”
Original thinking direct to your inbox
Stories from Bond